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in this article they are able to engage a more in-depth sight at one of the most Important shale basins in the united states (U.S.) mainly focusing on the challenge of well productiveness over time. here's a crucial hardship since it has ramifications for fairness valuations in the sector (NYSE:XOP) as smartly because the outlook for international oil deliver dynamics.
It occasionally looks that the U.S. shale traffic just can't show to shift the narrative and overcome the reputedly overwhelming impecunious sentiment overhanging the sphere. but are traders extrapolating one of the most very precise negative risk factors that could exist relevant when it comes to selected companies onto the entire trade?
one of the vital enduring terrible elements it's regularly trumpeted out with the aid of the bears is that these businesses don't look to exist producing free cash stream (or not in a position to) as capital bills deserve to continue to exist high with a purpose to offset legacy declines. It is perquisite that legacy decline rates for shale wells are steep. youngsters, many groups (no longer all) were working a tons larger cost of capital expenditure in order to develop production (and in some situations cover preparatory construction expenses linked to infrastructure) and if their train become to in simple terms retain flat output ranges, their capital costs could exist an impecunious lot lessen.
If they engage a glance on the most coincident consequences presentation from Pioneer herbal elements (NYSE:PXD) they can survey that the company has outlined a capital expenditure budget of around USD three.1bn which well-nigh matches forecasted working money circulation of USD 3.2bn. however, this stage of capital expenditure will outcome in an additional 15% creation boom in oil volumes this yr at a budgeted West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fee of $53 per barrel. If the company were with ease to maintain output at 2018 ranges, the mandatory degree of capital expenditure would decline to $2.2bn, implying EBIT (or salary earlier than tax and hobby) of round $1bn.
supply: q4 profits Presentation, Pioneer natural substances
Some market individuals may additionally noiseless reckon a bit of unsatisfied at these kindly of metrics, however an oil company able to grow construction inside cash stream at $fifty three per barrel is surely now not terminally mistaken. specifically when it has a reserve groundwork a sterling pass to permit it to provide at current tiers for essentially two decades if not extra. Assuming the identical form of charge, creation (hence no production increase) and productiveness metrics, PXD could well generate annual EBIT of roughly $2.2bn at a protracted-time age WTI expense of $70.
moving on from this selected narrative, the latest dismal soundbite that investors absorb had to suffer is that this coincident article posted by using the Wall road Journal.
The article purportedly uncovers a plague structural hardship in the traffic in that the productivity and ultimate volumes exhibited by using the industry taking All wells drilled over the censorious length absorb fallen in exigency of the quite a lot of ‘classification curves’ presented by the numerous listed groups of their displays. This should noiseless no longer always arrive as a surprise. Any pro investor may noiseless know that organizations often are trying to depict the very best reflection of their business’ s fundamentals in a presentation. during this sense, are U.S. shale groups any different to most different businesses that automatically miss forecasts or projections that they originate in their shows?
Any investor that might cost a corporation primarily based solely on these introduced class curves devoid of applying a suit margin of safety is being silly. in fact it almost always can pay to ensue a margin of safeguard when formulating a valuation considering the fact that it is unimaginable to grasp every thing about a corporation, in any trade really.
but does the Wall road Journal article witness that natural trade productivity is declining? we've written in prior articles that there does show to exist a reputable thesis (such as the father or mother-child well interference difficulty) that the productivity positive aspects the industry has registered over the past decade aren't likely to prove sustainable for tons longer.
besides the fact that children, there is not any actual proof at this juncture of a decline in productivity as they are able to survey within the charts beneath taken from the energy suggestions Administration (EIA) newest drilling productiveness file (DPR) for January 2019. productiveness measured in terms oil creation per rig in the first month that a neatly is drilled rose to a record stage in the Bakken basin in 2018 and is noiseless at or near to these stages.
supply: EIA, Drilling productiveness report
within the Permian, smartly productivity measured on this groundwork reached a record in early 2016 and however receding by far since then, productivity remains mostly unchanged over the terminal two years.
supply: EIA, Drilling productivity document
in addition, when it involves the Permian it's crucial to wait cognizant that a huge component (1mn bpd) of oil construction factored into the DPR metrics is legacy widely wide-spread production, whereas logistical bottlenecks has meant that the number of drilled but uncompleted wells has climbed enormously over the terminal twelve months, likely a miniature distorting these identical productiveness metrics.
in view that this manner of measuring productiveness will moreover exist a miniature bit improper, they checked out different most likely greater valuable comparisons, due to the incredible information compiled and published by Shaleprofile.com. They looked at data for the Bakken and Permian basin specially evaluating the oil creation per well achieved after 365 days for the 2017 antique to the 2016 vintage. For the Bakken the 2016 veteran of wells drilled (737 in total) produced 111,009 barrels per day (bpd) or a hundred and fifty bpd per neatly after one year. The 2017 vintage (992 wells drilled) produced roughly one hundred eighty,000 bpd (we absorb extrapolated this from the actual November 2018 determine of 193,000 bpd) or 181 bpd per smartly. they can survey that the 2017 wells are really producing greater oil per smartly twelve months later when in comparison to the 2016 old.
more primarily, Shaleprofile.com actually offers a evaluation between calendar vintages when it comes to oil construction per smartly for each and every yr, depicted below. they can survey that for the Bakken basin as a minimum, productiveness as measured in oil produced per neatly accomplished has stronger each year.
analyzing the identical information for the Permian basin, the equal style is largely observed. The 2017 veteran of wells drilled are producing extra oil per well drilled three hundred and sixty five days later (December 2018) when in comparison to the 2016 vintage of wells. again referencing the records from Shaleprofile.com for the Permian below they can survey within the second chart that the cumulative construction per well for the 2018 and 2017 vintages are operating forward of prior year vintages.
What happens if productiveness ranges decline going forward?
First, what can they conclude from the above analysis? in All probability, most importantly the suggestion that shale productiveness is declining or has vastly “undershot” prior expectations is it appears that evidently mistaken. truly, if the relaxation the traffic has up to now over delivered in terms of productivity positive factors, which in gyrate is why they confidence that these sterling points are likely going to prove unsustainable going ahead. however, notwithstanding productivity tiers flatten out or decline slightly from current stages, here is now not a bearish component for many of the individual organizations themselves.
As we've mentioned in a previous article, a ten% decline in productivity would “Ceteris Paribus” rear total construction (including capital) expenses with the aid of 10% or assuming a groundwork suffuse of $30 per barrel of oil such as $33. besides the fact that children, a 10% (and even simply flat) decline in productiveness would absorb great implications for overall U.S. oil creation boom and therefore the global oil market, considering the fact that the international oil market at the instant well-nigh relies just about entirely on an increase in U.S. creation boom to satisfy the incremental increase in world oil demand.
excessive legacy decline fees imply that shale oil operators conclude should drill a larger number of wells every year with a purpose to boost output tiers. (word: boost now not retain - here's a vital grand dissimilarity and has nothing to conclude with individual smartly productivity). this suggests a concomitant boost within the rig matter number, each year. Referencing statistics compiled and presented by using Raymond James beneath, they can survey that totally to ensure that U.S. production degrees to hold transforming into, the rig matter number will should increase by using roughly 30% over the subsequent two years. This forecast assumes a 5% enhance in productivity into perpetuity.
If productivity degrees stall or decline modestly (possible in their opinion) then the necessary enhance within the rig matter number will should exist even larger, most likely 40% to 50% bigger. Such a grand boost within the rig matter number will effortlessly now not ensue with oil prices beneath $60 per barrel and quite perhaps it could possibly require sustained fees above $70 per barrel. Assuming a 5% to 10% decline in productiveness degrees ends up in an equilibrium fee of between $70 to $90 per barrel imperative to stimulate renewed rig deployment (in the trade as an entire), the incremental increase in revenues that would accrue to many U.S. shale producers would dwarf the marginal increase in charges associated with a one of these decline in productiveness.
With the oil rig matter number (as depicted under) having remained largely flat over the terminal six months, it seems that we're a very sterling pass away from reaching the sort of rig matter required to ensure continued creation boom within the usaor at least at a stage similar to what we've viewed over the past two years. really, in keeping with probably the most coincident EIA DPR record for January 2019, projected oil production growth from the a considerable number of shale basins has already been revised sharply lessen to just sixty two,000 bpd (month-to-month), the lowest monthly DPR projection from the EIA on account that January 2017.
supply: Baker Hughes U.S. Oil Rig matter number, Tradingeconomics
The precise matter in U.S. shale perquisite now
eventually, they ought to spotlight an extra hardship which they contemplate will grow to exist being pass more crucial than the productiveness matter at a macro stage (despite the fact the two are nevertheless a bit of linked) we've discussed at length in this article. The differentiation between core and non-core acreage within North america’ s shale basins is, they believe, going to develop into an increasingly vital factor, no longer only for the organizations themselves, but when it comes to the complete outlook for world power expenditures.
Returning to the Permian for instance and greater above All the fresh pursuits that absorb unfolded at Laredo Petroleum (NYSE:LPI) they can illustrate extra accurately what they try to convey. LPI's acreage within the Midland element of the Permian basin is arguably backyard what's now considered the core or gold measure acreage in the enviornment. This does not mean that their acreage is uneconomic at present costs, nonetheless it isn't going to supply the returns that operators are becoming within the core area.
For functions of their instance they will exercise records from a presentation given via Parsley energy (NYSE:PE) through which they current their personal estimation of the the space the core acreage within the Midland component of the Permian lies.
supply: corporate Presentation, Parsley energy
we are able to survey that much (although not all) of the acreage is concentrated within the Midland, Martin and Upton counties. In distinction, LPI's acreage (or at the least in accordance with Parsley's estimation) lies backyard the core enviornment as defined within the Reagan and Glasscock counties.
supply: corporate Presentation, Laredo Petroleum
to ensure that us to verify Parsley energy's estimation of what constitutes core acreage within the Midland basin they again to Shaleprofile.com and looked at the historical productivity of wells drilled in the a variety of counties pertinent to the Midland basin area. above All they looked at cumulative oil production 24 months after a neatly has been drilled. If they dawn with Midland county itself (arguably the epicenter of the core), they can survey that common well productivity here indicates no badge of degradation.
by contrast if look at the identical timeline of 24 months for wells drilled in Reagan county they examine here -
This statistics at least seems to verify Parsley's power's definition of what constitutes "core acreage" in this a portion of the Permian. curiously we'd element out that typical well productivity in Glasscock county reflects a similar sample to that followed in Midland county even if it is largely described as being outdoor the core. despite the fact, over a 12 month time-body well productivity in Glasscock has moreover declined and in distinction to Midland county, where measure well productivity measured over 12 months continues to exist at a listing excessive.
In LPI's case the incontrovertible fact that they look to own acreage outdoor of what may moreover exist considered "core" became compounded by using a election in 2017 to drill larger density wells per spacing unit (a spacing unit is typically 640 acres) or 32 wells per unit from eight to sixteen wells per unit. The result predictably resulted in "dad or mum-baby interference" as more infill wells absorb been drilled and resulted in an surprising decline in oil productivity, thus forcing administration to arrive back to a lessen density drilling programme.
let us exist lucid although, an operator it truly is experiencing declining productivity because of a drilling programme that has overly dense spacing is facing a different concern from one working out of core acreage or transferring their drilling programme to poorer acreage. the previous situation can exist resolved by using the traffic adopting wider spacing with the remonstrate to return its productiveness stages lower back to where they had been. Naturally this reduces the number of competencies well places that may moreover exist drilled by the enterprise, but when an organization has a very giant stock or drilling areas (like LPI) then the greatest absorb an repercussion on are not that large.
despite the fact, if a company is now having to shift its drilling programme to acreage with reduce intrinsic productiveness or a diminish "oil cut" there's without problems not a sterling deal they can conclude about that. during this regard, there are likely to exist many smaller or inner most operators that are facing just this kindly of situation of affairs over the following few years. Naturally, the two concerns could nonetheless exist linked in that poorer acreage can't accommodate the identical nature of density that stronger acreage can and during this sense an operator in a non-core enviornment running the identical sort of spacing density as operators within the core should noiseless exist considered probably bigger risk.
Why are they bringing up this specific illustration? neatly for two causes. the primary purpose is as an instance how much smaller the terminal core acreage in the main shale basins in the U.S. may actually be. really as highlighted during this report from Kimmeridge power, total core acreage in the Midland basin may moreover best volume to a few 800,000 acres which via their definition comprises acreage in counties similar to Reagan and Glasscock which Parsley power's records shows best comprises a small element of core acreage.
moreover related to here is the indisputable fact that lots if now not most of this core acreage is now consolidated within the hands of a simply a number of groups. there's the identical dynamic at play in the different foremost oil producing basins in the united states, the Bakken and Eagle Ford, which along with the Permian account for ninety% of total tight (shale) oil production in the U.S.
So what, some may ask? well, the value is that youngsters these organizations absorb tremendous reserves, they even absorb well delineated long-time age development plans that target a particular expense of annual growth in production, continually between 10% and 20%. they are extraordinarily not likely to deviate, or at the least meaningfully, from these long-time age production plans until fees alternate at a sterling deal larger degrees for a sustained age of time.
As smaller operators or companies with less eye-catching acreage dash out of core acreage, the all boost in construction from these basins will ultimately emanate totally from these handful of ‘ core’ operators, as they can exist the most effective ones left with financial or core acreage to engage advantage of and therefore grow production. in the terminate this suggests that in the future a tremendously larger and sustained cost may exist required to sprint the needle on U.S. production growth than has been the case during the past. it will ought to exist sufficiently multiplied with a purpose to originate unavoidable that extra marginal or “Tier 2” acreage is economic. this may or should dramatically boost the charge of organizations that absorb tremendous reserves (or many years of core creation) of Tier 1 acreage.
The 2nd intent they are highlighting LPI listed here is to prove that on the rectify fee even corporations with extra marginal acreage may nevertheless exist eye-catching as abilities investments. here's chiefly the case with organizations that noiseless absorb a fairly great stock of drilling areas relative to their latest stage of completions and the space the decline in productiveness can moreover exist largely remedied with the aid of adopting wider spacing between wells.
LPI has naturally had its complications and its construction profile is by far gassy (oil only contains 37% of total oil equal production). indeed this seems to exist fitting a greater impartial feature of the Midland basin, namely a reasonably chunky upward thrust within the gas-Oil ratio over time and a residual risk component for operators during this basin together with LPI.
nonetheless, if they anticipate that the suitable "incentive" charge for the U.S. shale traffic as a all (in order to originate unavoidable that measure production growth continues to exist above 1mn bpd) is round $70, then even LPI may additionally present some upside from current tiers. LPI nevertheless retains considerable acreage and even at an assumed lessen spacing interval of content 5 to 8 wells per 640 acre spacing unit would absorb some 1,000 to 1,600 ultimate neatly places as inventory.
At a construction pace of round 50-60 completions per yr (the surely cadence to originate positive a flat creation profile build up 2020) this may translate into 15 to twenty years charge of inventory. At an extended-term WTI charge of $70, LPI continues to exist recumbent to generate adequate operational cash sprint to cowl its required capital fees and generate wholesome extra earnings, regardless of what they might moreover add is a very heavy accepted and Administrative rate burden! (another excuse why the industry should survey even more consolidation in order to convey lawful shareholder cost).
*LPI - the canary in the coalmine?
LPI's acreage however in All probability now not considered as core continues to exist viewed as Tier one and never All that marginal. despite this verity they will survey from the skid taken from their q4 revenue presentation and according to their latest assumption of $fifty four per barrel going ahead, LPI is cutting back is energetic rig matter number from 3 to 1 and cutting back its total capital expenditure funds for 2019 by means of basically 50%. LPI's current and long dash drilling programme will result in a 5% decline in oil production this 12 months and flat construction from 2020 onwards (2 rigs)
source: this topple earnings presentation, Laredo Petroleum
So from their perspective they may view LPI as a potential barometer for the total industry in that its acreage seems to exist in the "core" of the trade range. In a nutshell, if the oil charge increases to a degree where LPI is producing ample money movement and management feels sufficiently assured to delivery ramping up construction, then we've likely reached a similar inflexion aspect for the all traffic and vice-versa.
certainly, LPI's incentive cost with the remonstrate to ramp up production is now above $60 per barrel (in All probability $70?). If here is the case they will conclude that except oil expenditures return to the $70 to $80 stage, fabric draw back risk to U.S. oil production growth forecasts are likely to emerge as the year unfolds.
Disclosure: i am/we're long LPI. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my very own opinions. i am not receiving compensation for it (apart from from in the hunt for Alpha). I don't absorb any enterprise relationship with any company whose inventory is outlined in this article.
For the most part, the Wi-Fi Alliance is stoked about the commemorate of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) wherein the FCC is analyzing methods to originate up to 1200 megahertz of spectrum accessible to exist used by using unlicensed devices in the 6 GHz party (5.925-7.one hundred twenty five GHz). nevertheless it's offering some concepts for adjustments, announcing its tips will exist positive insurance device of incumbent operations whereas providing severely essential spectrum for unlicensed makes exercise of enjoy Wi-Fi.
The FCC launched the NPRM closing topple and posed a train of inquiries to traffic stakeholders on a number of proposals to originate All of it work. the primary round of feedback became due on Friday.
The Wi-Fi Alliance renowned it helps the FCC’s project to divide the 6 GHz party into four sub-bands: the U-NII-5 (5.925-6.425 GHz), U-NII-6 (6.425-6.525 GHz), U-NII-7 (6.525-6.875 GHz) and U-NII-8 (6.875-7.a hundred twenty five GHz), according to the features of incumbent features. The alliance additionally supports the commission’s inspiration to modify unlicensed exercise within the 6 GHz band based on a two-type approach, which differentiates between low-power, indoor-most effective (LPI) AP and standard-vigor AP gadgets.
Attend the 2-Day executive 5G Panel collectionFierceWireless is returning to Barcelona, Spain, throughout cellular World Congress 2019 with a two-day govt 5G Panel sequence at the Fira Congress hotel, with ease organize throughout the road from the MWC conference center. The panel activities will engage region on Feb. 25-26 and should cover 5G and The fastened wireless access possibility, Taking 5G Indoors, and Making 5G Ubiquitous. Attendees will exist able to community and listen to from 5G leaders including Verizon, Vodafone, Orange, sprint, NTT Docomo, Boingo wireless, Qualcomm, and extra over the course of two days.
at ease your spot on the sustain today! now is your casual to connect fellow traffic experts for networking and education. Registration assistance and the agenda will moreover exist organize on the web page here.
mainly, the alliance needs the FCC to accept as lawful with enabling LPI AP operations throughout the entire 6 GHz band, together with the U-NII-5 and U-NII-7 bands, devoid of an automated frequency coordination requirement for these bands. it could additionally want to survey the commission enable client contraptions that function below the manage of an AP to operate on the identical energy stage because the AP (whether average-energy or LPI), among different things.
linked: Wi-Fi Alliance working on thoughts for 6 GHz
in accordance with the Wi-Fi Alliance, the 6 GHz party is not simplest beneficial for Wi-Fi, but it surely’s additionally seriously necessary.
“as with every wireless technology, Wi-Fi’s functionality depends on enough entry to spectrum,” renowned Alex Roytblat, senior director of regulatory affairs on the Wi-Fi Alliance, in a statement provided to FierceWirelessTech. “at present, Wi-Fi’s performance, capabilities, and its role in the Nation’s telecommunications infrastructure and economy are threatened by means of the lack of enough spectrum entry.
related: Wi-Fi Alliance, Cisco among these applauding 6 GHz motion
“To verify this threat, Wi-Fi Alliance commissioned a Spectrum wants analyze that analyzed present and future Wi-Fi spectrum necessities. in response to projected increase prominent for Wi-Fi, through 2025, up to 1500 megahertz of further mid-band spectrum may exist vital to preserve the Wi-Fi ecosystem,” he introduced.
Importantly, the 6 GHz party additionally offers contiguous spectrum blocks to accommodate one hundred sixty megahertz channels, that are required for prime-bandwidth applications, akin to excessive-definition video streaming and digital fact. The subsequent technology of Wi-Fi—which is in keeping with IEEE 802.11ax, often known as Wi-Fi 6—is designed to lead these excessive-facts throughput functions.
“in short, the pass forward for Wi-Fi and its capacity to continue to carry a pleasing consumer experience, connectivity, economic cost, and a lot of different advantages depends on entry to the entire 6 GHz band,” Roytblat said.
As Wi-Fi Now pronounced remaining week, the IEEE 802.11 working group has determined that best Wi-Fi 6 instruments should exist permitted to operate within the prospective fresh 6 GHz Wi-Fi bands, as hostile to past iterations of the ordinary. The determination potential that Wi-Fi 6 could exist defined for operation in All present Wi-Fi bands together with 2.four GHz, 5 GHz and future 6 GHz. Wi-Fi 5 (802.11ac) will continue to operate in 5 GHz only, while 2.4 GHz will nonetheless lead older Wi-Fi models (predominantly Wi-Fi four or 802.11n), based on Wi-Fi Now.
The Wi-Fi Alliance, despite the fact, renowned it enthusiastically helps the fee’s inspiration to prolong unlicensed access to the 6 GHz party but doesn’t are seeking for to restrict unlicensed operations to a particular common or technology.
“old FCC selections to enable unlicensed exercise on a know-how-impartial basis leveraged a confined quantity of spectrum (e.g., 2.4 GHz or 5 GHz bands) into an explosion of wireless innovation,” Roytblat referred to. “A technology-impartial regulatory model within the 6 GHz party would proceed to foster this innovation. The 6 GHz party is uniquely applicable for the Wi-Fi 6 implementation and Wi-Fi industry is constructing this expertise in anticipation of the 6 GHz spectrum becoming obtainable in the near future. Wi-Fi Alliance additionally is noiseless focused on their core mission to hold interoperability so that users absorb the best viable Wi-Fi experience.”
Wall street expects a 12 months-over-12 months enhance in income on greater revenues when Laredo Petroleum (LPI) stories results for the quarter ended December 2018. while this commonly-known consensus outlook is crucial in gauging the enterprise's profits picture, a magnificent ingredient that could influence its near-time age stock fee is how the genuine outcomes compare to those estimates.
The stock might movement bigger if these key numbers desirable expectations in the upcoming income document, which is expected to exist released on February 13. on the other hand, in the event that they omit, the inventory may circulate lower.
while management's discussion of traffic circumstances on the salary convene will commonly investigate the sustainability of the instant rate change and future profits expectations, it exist charge having a handicapping insight into the percentages of a auspicious EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus Estimate
This oil and natural fuel traffic is expected to build up quarterly revenue of $0.20 per participate in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year alternate of +5.three%.
Revenues are expected to exist $242.fifty nine million, up 0.9% from the year-in the past quarter.
Estimate Revisions fashion
The consensus EPS appraise for the quarter has been revised forty four.forty four% lessen over the terminal 30 days to the current level. here's well-nigh a reflection of how the overlaying analysts absorb together reassessed their preparatory estimates over this period.
buyers should engage into account that an combination alternate may moreover no longer at All times replicate the direction of appraise revisions through each of the protecting analysts.
cost, Consensus and EPS shock
Estimate revisions ahead of a corporation's profits release present clues to the enterprise conditions for the age whose consequences are coming out. This perception is at the core of their proprietary shock prediction mannequin -- the Zacks earnings ESP (anticipated shock Prediction).
The Zacks revenue ESP compares essentially the most rectify appraise to the Zacks Consensus appraise for the quarter; probably the most rectify appraise is a extra recent edition of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The thought here is that analysts revising their estimates perquisite before an profits liberate absorb the newest assistance, which may probably exist extra accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
thus, a positive or terrible profits ESP analyzing theoretically shows the doubtless deviation of the specific income from the consensus estimate. although, the mannequin's predictive energy is huge for high-quality ESP readings simplest.
a positive income ESP is a stalwart predictor of an profits beat, specially when mixed with a Zacks Rank #1 (potent buy), 2 (purchase) or 3 (dangle). Their analysis suggests that shares with this compund produce a auspicious astonish nearly 70% of the time, and a exotic Zacks Rank in fact increases the predictive vim of salary ESP.
Please word that a impecunious income ESP analyzing isn't indicative of an profits miss. Their research shows that it is difficult to call an profits beat with any diploma of self assurance for stocks with impecunious revenue ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (promote) or 5 (potent promote).
How absorb the Numbers shaped Up for Laredo Petroleum?
For Laredo Petroleum, probably the most accurate appraise is the identical as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that there are no fresh analyst views which orbit from what had been regarded to derive the consensus estimate. This has resulted in an income ESP of 0%.
on the other hand, the stock at the instant carries a Zacks Rank of #three.
So, this compund makes it tricky to conclusively call that Laredo Petroleum will beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does earnings astonish background hang Any Clue?
Analysts often coincide with to what extent a corporation has been capable of match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it exist charge taking a sight at the shock background for gauging its repercussion on the upcoming number.
For the closing mentioned quarter, it was anticipated that Laredo Petroleum would build up revenue of $0.30 per participate when it really produced income of $0.27, supplying a astonish of -10%.
Over the ultimate four quarters, the enterprise has crushed consensus EPS estimates only once.
An earnings beat or pass over may now not exist the sole basis for a inventory moving bigger or reduce. Many stocks become losing ground regardless of an profits beat as a result of other elements that disappoint traders. in a similar fashion, unforeseen catalysts back a number of shares profit regardless of an earnings leave out.
That noted, making a pot on shares which are expected to beat salary expectations does increase the odds of success. this is why it's value checking an organization's earnings ESP and Zacks Rank forward of its quarterly liberate. exist unavoidable to utilize their earnings ESP Filter to find the premiere shares to buy or sell earlier than they've mentioned.
Laredo Petroleum does not look a compelling income-beat candidate. despite the fact, traders should pay attention to different elements too for making a pot on this inventory or staying faraway from it forward of its earnings liberate.
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First Republic Bank (FRC) reported first-quarter 2014 adjusted earnings of 67 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus appraise of 64 cents. However, the reported pattern compared unfavorably with 72 cents per participate earned in the year-ago quarter.
Better-than-expected results were mainly driven by revenue growth, partially offset by a rise in expenses. Capital power and solid franchise development were the other tailwinds.
Including unavoidable one-time items, the company reported net income of $114.7 million, down 6.4% from the prior-year quarter. Net income available to the common shareholders was $100.8 million, down 12.2% from the prior-year quarter.
Performance in Detail
Total revenue was $362.2 million, up 7.8% year over year. Excluding the repercussion of purchase accounting, First Republic’s core revenue came in at $381.7 million, up 3.1% year over year but below the Zacks Consensus appraise of $382.0 million.
First Republic’s net interest income increased 7.6% year over year to $320.7 million. Excluding the repercussion of purchase accounting, net interest income was $301.2 million, up 14.2% from the year-ago quarter.
However, core net interest margin fell 25 basis points (bps) year over year to 3.17%. Excluding the repercussion of purchase accounting, margin was 3.37%, down 50 bps year over year.
The company’s non-interest income came in at $61.0 million, down 15.6% year over year. The decline was primarily owing to a significant topple in proceeds from the sale of loans.
Non-interest expense was $213.4 million, up 17.4% year over year. An increase in salaries and employee benefits, expenses related to technology platform and professional fees primarily led to this rise.
Core efficiency ratio stood at 58.9% as compared with 54.1% in the prior-year quarter. Excluding the repercussion of purchase accounting, the ratio was 57.0% as against 50.4% in the prior-year quarter. An increase in efficiency ratio indicates decline in profitability.
First Republic’s credit character was mixed in the quarter under review. On a year-over-year basis, the provision for credit losses increased 9.5% to $7.1 million and total nonperforming assets rose 10.9 % to $55.3 million.Further, nonperforming assets to total assets ratio was 0.12%, down from 0.14% in the year-ago quarter. As of Dec 31, 2013, the ratio of net loan charge-offs to impartial total loans was 0.01%, up from 0.00% the prior-year period.
Asset and Capital Position
During the reported quarter, First Republic’s capital ratios were a mixed bag. As of Mar 31, 2014, the company’s Tier 1 leverage ratio was 9.85% versus 9.36% as of Mar 31, 2013.
Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio was 14.07% compared with 13.53% as of Mar 31, 2013. Further, engage value per participate came in at $26.21, up from $22.97 at the terminate of the prior-year quarter.
Net loans increased 22.9% year over year to $34.4 billion as of Mar 31, 2014, while total deposits rose 25.0 % to $33.6 billion.
First Republic announced an increase in its quarterly cash dividend for the first quarter to 14 cents per share, which is payable on May 15, 2014 to shareholders of record as of May 1, 2014.
We expect First Republic’s growth gaining momentum owing to its balance sheet strength. Moreover, rise in loans and deposits witness the company’s sterling organic growth prospects.
However, higher interest expenses and non-interest expenses are causes of concern. An unsettled economic environment and stringent regulations are the other challenges.
First Republic currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Among other Western banks, BBCN Bancorp, Inc. (BBCN) is scheduled to report first-quarter results on Apr 21, while SVB financial Group (SIVB) and City National Corporation (CYN) are expected to report on Apr 24.
Read the plenary Research Report on CYNRead the plenary Research Report on SIVBRead the plenary Research Report on BBCNRead the plenary Research Report on FRC
Zacks Investment Research
CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--GATX Corporation (NYSE:GMT) today reported 2015 third quarter net income of $39.5 million or $0.91 per diluted share, compared to net income of $51.3 million or $1.14 per diluted participate in the third quarter of 2014. Net income through September 2015 was $147.1 million or $3.33 per diluted share, compared to $146.5 million or $3.18 per diluted participate in the prior year period. The 2015 third quarter and year-to-date results embrace a net after-tax loss of $26.6 million, or $0.61 per diluted participate related to the company’s determination to exit the majority of its marine investments within the Portfolio Management segment.
“The North American railcar leasing environment in 2015 has been consistent with their initial outlook,” said Brian A. Kenney, president and chief executive officer of GATX. “Certain North American car types, especially coal cars, are experiencing decreasing demand. However, GATX’s Lease charge Index, renewal metrics, and remarketing income All remain strong. Rail North America’s utilization remains extremely high at 99.2%, reflecting the composition and term structure of GATX’s diverse fleet.”
“Rail International, particularly their European fleet, continues to achieve solid operating results. At American Steamship Company, auspicious weather conditions, higher water levels, and spot cargoes helped to partially offset softening claim for iron ore on the powerful Lakes.”
“During the third-quarter of 2015 they made a strategic determination to exit the majority of their marine investments within their Portfolio Management segment. Although their investments in inland marine assets historically performed very well for GATX, their investments in ocean-going vessels absorb experienced significant earnings volatility. Given that inland marine and ocean-going investments are no longer core to GATX, they are opting to monetize these investments. The investments in Rolls-Royce and Partners Finance are unaffected by this determination and these joint ventures continue to fulfill very well.”
Mr. Kenney concluded, “We expect their 2015 full-year earnings to exist at the upper orbit of their previously stated appraise of $5.15 to $5.35 per diluted share, excluding any repercussion of the exit from Portfolio Management’s marine investments.”
“Looking longer-term, the growing over-supply of tank cars is decreasing tank car renewal rates and making it more difficult to space fresh tank cars delivering in 2016. Their early recognition of the impending changes in the tank car market was the backdrop for their strategy to lock in attractive lease rates for longer terms and maintain a disciplined investment strategy. As a result of this strategy, their committed lease revenues are at record levels, and this groundwork of stable cash stream will serve us well when the environment for more attractive investment opportunities develops.”
RAIL NORTH AMERICA
Rail North America reported segment profit of $90.0 million in the third quarter of 2015, compared to $70.6 million in the third quarter of 2014. The increase in quarterly segment profit was primarily attributable to improved utilization and higher lease rates across the fleet.
Year to date, Rail North America reported segment profit of $280.7 million, compared to $237.3 million in the identical age of 2014. The increase in year-to-date segment profit was driven by increased lease revenue from higher lease rates as well as a nine-month contribution and higher utilization from the acquired boxcar fleet compared to six months at a lower utilization rate in the prior year.
At September 30, 2015, Rail North America’s wholly owned fleet was approximately 125,000 cars, including more than 18,500 boxcars. The following fleet statistics exclude the boxcar fleet.
Fleet utilization was 99.2% at the terminate of the third quarter, compared to 99.3% at the terminate of the prior quarter and 98.8% at the terminate of the third quarter of 2014. During the third quarter, the GATX Lease charge Index (“LPI”), a weighted impartial lease renewal rate for a group of railcars representative of Rail North America's fleet, increased 25.6% over the weighted impartial expiring lease rate. This compares to a 36.3% increase in the prior quarter and a 46.9% increase in the third quarter of 2014. A lackluster coal market continues to negatively repercussion GATX’s LPI. The impartial lease renewal term for All cars included in the LPI during the third quarter was 60 months, compared to 54 months in the prior quarter and 68 months in the third quarter of 2014. Asset remarketing income was approximately $10.5 million during the quarter, and total investment volume was nearly $98 million.
Additional fleet statistics, including information on the boxcar fleet, and macroeconomic data related to Rail North America’s traffic are provided on the terminal page of this press release.
Rail International's segment profit was $15.5 million in the third quarter of 2015, compared to $19.7 million in the third quarter of 2014. Rail International reported segment profit of $56.4 million year-to-date 2015, compared to $59.8 million for the identical age in 2014. The diminish in the segment profit was driven primarily by the effects of a weaker Euro. These foreign exchange rate impacts absorb been partially offset by higher lease revenue and lower maintenance costs at GATX Rail Europe (“GRE”).
At September 30, 2015, GRE's fleet consisted of approximately 22,800 cars and utilization was 95.7%, compared to 95.5% at the terminate of the second quarter and 95.1% at the terminate of the third quarter of 2014.
Additional fleet statistics for GATX Rail Europe are provided on the terminal page of this press release.
AMERICAN STEAMSHIP COMPANY
American Steamship Company (“ASC”) reported a segment profit of $10.9 million in the third quarter of 2015 compared to segment profit of $15.2 million in the third quarter of 2014. Segment profit year-to-date 2015 was $13.4 million, compared to $17.1 million year-to-date 2014. ASC carried 19.5 million net tons of cargo through the third quarter of 2015, compared to 19.6 million net tons in the prior year period. The diminish in segment profit was driven by commodity and trade fuse variances.
In the third quarter of 2015, Portfolio Management recorded a segment loss of $17.3 million, including a net pre-tax loss of approximately $42.5 million ($26.6 million after-tax) associated with the planned exit of the majority of Portfolio Management’s marine investments. The loss associated with this exit taken in the third quarter is expected to exist partially offset by inland marine-related temperament gains that they expect to achieve in the fourth quarter.
Segment profit year-to-date 2015 was $8.9 million, compared to $40.1 million year-to-date 2014. The diminish in year-to-date segment profit was due to a net loss associated with the planned exit from Portfolio Management’s marine investments.
GATX Corporation (NYSE:GMT) strives to exist recognized as the finest railcar leasing company in the world by its customers, its shareholders, its employees and the communities where it operates. As the largest global railcar lessor, GATX has been providing character railcars and services to its customers for more than 116 years. GATX has been headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, since its founding in 1898. For more information, gladden visit the Company's website at www.gatx.com.
GATX Corporation will host a teleconference to discuss 2015 third-quarter results. convene details are as follows:
Thursday, October 22nd11:00 A.M. Eastern TimeDomestic Dial-In: 1-877-675-4753International Dial-In: 1-719-325-4810Replay: 1-888-203-1112 or 1-719-457-0820/Access Code: 216717
Call-in details, a copy of this press release and real-time audio access are available at www.gatx.com. gladden access the convene 15 minutes prior to the start time. Following the call, a replay will exist available on the identical site.
Forward-looking statements in this press release that are not historical facts are “forward-looking statements” within the acceptation of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These embrace statements that reflect their current views with respect to, among other things, future events, financial performance and market conditions. In some cases, forward-looking statements can exist identified by the exercise of words such as “may,” “could,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “seek,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “predict,” “potential,” “continue,” “likely,” “will,” “would,” and variations of these terms and similar expressions, or the negative of these terms or similar expressions. Specific risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, (1) changes in regulatory requirements for tank cars carrying crude, ethanol, and other flammable liquids, (2) competitive factors in their primary markets, (3) inability to maintain their assets on lease at satisfactory rates, (4) infirm economic conditions, financial market volatility, and other factors that may diminish claim for their assets and services, (5) changes to, or failure to comply with, laws, rules, and regulations applicable to their assets and operations, (6) operational disruption and increased costs associated with compliance maintenance programs and other maintenance initiatives, (7) financial and operational risks associated with long-term railcar purchase commitments, (8) deterioration of conditions in the capital markets, reductions in their credit ratings, or increases in their financing costs, (9) events having an adverse repercussion on assets, customers, or regions where they absorb a great investment, (10) decreased claim for unavoidable railcars used in the petroleum industry due to sustained low crude-oil prices, (11) risks related to international operations and expansion into fresh geographic markets, (12) inadequate allowances to cover credit losses in their portfolio, (13) asset impairment charges they may exist required to recognize, (14) environmental remediation costs or a negative outcome in their pending or threatened litigation, (15) inability to obtain cost-effective insurance, (16) fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, (17) operational and financial risks related to their affiliate investments, (18) reduced opportunities to generate asset remarketing income, (19) failure to successfully negotiate collective bargaining agreements with the unions representing a substantial portion of their employees, and (20) other risks discussed in their filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including their form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014, and their subsequently filed form 10-Q reports, All of which are available on the SEC’s website (www.sec.gov).
Investors should not space undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which talk only as of the date they are made, and are not guarantees of future performance. The Company undertakes no duty to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements.
Investor, corporate, financial, historical financial, photographic and advice release information may exist organize at www.gatx.com.
--Tabular Follow--GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME (UNAUDITED) (In millions, except per participate data)
Three Months EndedSeptember 30
Nine Months EndedSeptember 302015 2014 2015 2014 Revenues Lease revenue $ 286.2 $ 279.1 $ 845.1 $ 804.0 Marine operating revenue 77.6 98.9 167.8 188.8 Other revenue 22.4 19.2 58.3 56.8 Total Revenues 386.2 397.2 1,071.2 1,049.6 Expenses Maintenance expense 83.9 85.6 242.4 242.7 Marine operating expense 48.5 64.8 114.7 134.4 Depreciation expense 75.0 71.9 217.9 201.7 Operating lease expense 22.3 27.4 65.4 81.6 Other operating expense 8.3 8.0 23.4 21.3 Selling, common and administrative expense 44.4 45.8 134.7 133.4 Total Expenses 282.4 303.5 798.5 815.1 Other Income (Expense) Net (loss) gain on asset dispositions (4.5 ) 6.3 49.5 62.6 Interest expense, net (37.7 ) (38.1 ) (117.1 ) (119.6 ) Other expense (3.1 ) (3.1 ) (8.7 ) (11.4 ) Income before Income Taxes and participate of Affiliates’ Earnings 58.5 58.8 196.4 166.1 Income Taxes (20.3 ) (19.9 ) (68.1 ) (54.2 ) Share of Affiliates’ Earnings (net of tax) 1.3 12.4 18.8 34.6 Net Income $ 39.5 $ 51.3 $ 147.1 $ 146.5 Share Data Basic earnings per share $ 0.92 $ 1.16 $ 3.38 $ 3.24 Average number of common shares 42.8 44.4 43.5 45.3 Diluted earnings per share $ 0.91 $ 1.14 $ 3.33 $ 3.18 Average number of common shares and common participate equivalents 43.4 45.2 44.1 46.1 Dividends declared per common share $ 0.38 $ 0.33 $ 1.14 $ 0.99 GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES CONSOLIDATED balance SHEETS (UNAUDITED) (In millions) September 30 December 31 2015 2014 Assets Cash and Cash Equivalents $ 116.0 $ 209.9 Restricted Cash 15.5 14.5 Receivables Rent and other receivables 90.7 86.0 Loans 9.6 97.3 Finance leases 170.5 174.7 Less: allowance for losses (6.3 ) (5.7 ) 264.5 352.3 Operating Assets and Facilities 8,141.2 8,143.5 Less: allowance for depreciation (2,487.9 ) (2,455.5 ) 5,653.3 5,688.0 Investments in Affiliated Companies 364.1 357.7 Goodwill 81.4 86.1 Other Assets 409.9 229.0 Total Assets $ 6,904.7 $ 6,937.5 Liabilities and Shareholders’ Equity Accounts Payable and Accrued Expenses $ 148.7 $ 165.9 Debt Commercial paper and borrowings under bank credit facilities 18.1 72.1 Recourse 4,271.2 4,179.9 Nonrecourse 9.2 15.9 Capital lease obligations 3.6 6.3 4,302.1 4,274.2 Deferred Income Taxes 987.1 937.3 Other Liabilities 197.8 246.1 Total Liabilities 5,635.7 5,623.5 Total Shareholders’ Equity 1,269.0 1,314.0 Total Liabilities and Shareholders’ Equity $ 6,904.7 $ 6,937.5 GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SEGMENT DATA (UNAUDITED) Three Months Ended September 30, 2015 (In millions)
Portfolio GATX Rail N.A.
Rail Int’lASC Management Other Consolidated Revenues Lease revenue $ 234.9 $ 44.1 $ 1.1 $ 6.1 $ — $ 286.2 Marine operating revenue — — 61.7 15.9 — 77.6 Other revenue 20.3 1.7 — 0.4 — 22.4 Total Revenues 255.2 45.8 62.8 22.4 — 386.2 Expenses Maintenance expense 66.7 9.9 7.3 — — 83.9 Marine operating expense — — 36.7 11.8 — 48.5 Depreciation expense 54.5 11.1 4.7 4.7 — 75.0 Operating lease expense 20.6 (0.1 ) 1.8 — — 22.3 Other operating expense 6.8 1.1 — 0.4 — 8.3 Total Expenses 148.6 22.0 50.5 16.9 — 238.0 Other Income (Expense) Net gain (loss) on asset dispositions 11.5 0.5 — (16.5 ) — (4.5 ) Interest expense, net (27.0 ) (7.0 ) (1.4 ) (4.7 ) 2.4 (37.7 ) Other expense (1.2 ) (1.8 ) — — (0.1 ) (3.1 ) Share of affiliates’ earnings (pretax) (1) 0.1 — — (1.6 ) — (1.5 ) Segment Profit (Loss) $ 90.0 $ 15.5 $ 10.9 $ (17.3 ) $ 2.3 $ 101.4 Selling, common and administrative expense 44.4 Income taxes (includes $2.8 tax profit related to affiliates’ earnings) 17.5 Net Income $ 39.5
Selected Data:Investment Volume $ 97.8 $ 40.9 $ 0.8 $ 1.9 $ 0.7 $ 142.1 Net Gain on Asset Dispositions
Asset Remarketing Income:Disposition gains on owned assets $ 10.2 $ — $ — $ 7.2 $ — $ 17.4 Residual sharing income 0.3 — — 7.3 — 7.6 Non-remarketing temperament gains (2) 1.0 0.6 — — — 1.6 Asset impairment — (0.1 ) — (31.0 ) — (31.1 ) Total Net Gain on Asset Dispositions $ 11.5 $ 0.5 $ — $ (16.5 ) $ — $ (4.5 )
(1) Includes a $19.0 million impairment loss in the Portfolio Management segment.
(2) Includes scrapping gains.GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SEGMENT DATA (UNAUDITED) Three Months Ended September 30, 2014 (In millions)
Portfolio GATX Rail N.A.
Rail Int’lASC Management Other Consolidated Revenues Lease revenue $ 222.6 $ 47.9 $ 1.1 $ 7.5 $ — $ 279.1 Marine operating revenue — — 82.7 16.2 — 98.9 Other revenue 15.7 2.3 — 1.2 — 19.2 Total Revenues 238.3 50.2 83.8 24.9 — 397.2 Expenses Maintenance expense 65.7 11.0 8.9 — — 85.6 Marine operating expense — — 52.2 12.6 — 64.8 Depreciation expense 49.7 11.9 4.5 5.8 — 71.9 Operating lease expense 25.6 — 1.8 — — 27.4 Other operating expense 6.1 1.2 — 0.7 — 8.0 Total Expenses 147.1 24.1 67.4 19.1 — 257.7 Other Income (Expense) Net gain on asset dispositions 4.4 0.8 — 1.1 — 6.3 Interest expense, net (24.1 ) (6.0 ) (1.4 ) (5.8 ) (0.8 ) (38.1 ) Other expense (1.0 ) (1.1 ) 0.2 (1.4 ) 0.2 (3.1 ) Share of affiliates’ earnings (pretax) 0.1 (0.1 ) — 17.0 — 17.0 Segment Profit (Loss) $ 70.6 $ 19.7 $ 15.2 $ 16.7 $ (0.6 ) $ 121.6 Selling, common and administrative expense 45.8 Income taxes (includes $4.6 related to affiliates’ earnings) 24.5 Net Income $ 51.3
Selected Data:Investment Volume $ 118.9 $ 45.6 $ 0.9 $ 5.0 $ 1.1 $ 171.5 Net Gain on Asset Dispositions
Asset Remarketing Income:Disposition gains on owned assets $ 1.2 $ — $ — $ — $ — $ 1.2 Residual sharing income 0.1 — — 1.1 — 1.2 Non-remarketing temperament gains (1) 3.1 0.9 — — — 4.0 Asset impairment — (0.1 ) — — — (0.1 ) Total Net Gain on Asset Dispositions $ 4.4 $ 0.8 $ — $ 1.1 $ — $ 6.3
(1) Includes scrapping gains.GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SEGMENT DATA (UNAUDITED) Nine Months Ended September 30, 2015 (In millions)
Portfolio GATX Rail N.A.
Rail Int’lASC Management Other Consolidated Revenues Lease revenue $ 694.3 $ 128.6 $ 3.1 $ 19.1 $ — $ 845.1 Marine operating revenue — — 119.7 48.1 — 167.8 Other revenue 51.8 5.3 — 1.2 — 58.3 Total Revenues 746.1 133.9 122.8 68.4 — 1,071.2 Expenses Maintenance expense 199.7 28.2 14.5 — — 242.4 Marine operating expense — — 77.7 37.0 — 114.7 Depreciation expense 160.1 32.6 9.6 15.6 — 217.9 Operating lease expense 62.0 — 3.5 — (0.1 ) 65.4 Other operating expense 18.1 3.5 — 1.8 — 23.4 Total Expenses 439.9 64.3 105.3 54.4 (0.1 ) 663.8 Other Income (Expense) Net gain (loss) on asset dispositions 54.4 6.5 — (11.4 ) — 49.5 Interest expense, net (76.1 ) (16.5 ) (4.0 ) (15.5 ) (5.0 ) (117.1 ) Other expense (4.2 ) (3.0 ) (0.1 ) — (1.4 ) (8.7 ) Share of affiliates’ earnings (pretax) (1) 0.4 (0.2 ) — 21.8 — 22.0 Segment Profit (Loss) $ 280.7 $ 56.4 $ 13.4 $ 8.9 $ (6.3 ) $ 353.1 Selling, common and administrative expense 134.7 Income taxes (includes $3.2 related to affiliates’ earnings) 71.3 Net Income $ 147.1
Selected Data:Investment Volume $ 362.8 $ 110.1 $ 20.3 $ 2.2 $ 2.9 $ 498.3 Net Gain on Asset Dispositions
Asset Remarketing Income:Disposition gains on owned assets $ 51.1 $ — $ — $ 9.3 $ — $ 60.4 Residual sharing income 0.7 — — 10.3 — 11.0 Non-remarketing temperament gains (2) 2.6 6.7 — — — 9.3 Asset impairment — (0.2 ) — (31.0 ) — (31.2 ) Total Net Gain on Asset Dispositions $ 54.4 $ 6.5 $ — $ (11.4 ) $ — $ 49.5
(1) Includes a $19.0 million impairment loss in the Portfolio Management segment.
(2) Includes scrapping gains.GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SEGMENT DATA (UNAUDITED) Nine Months Ended September 30, 2014 (In millions) Portfolio GATX Rail N.A. Rail Int’l ASC Management Other Consolidated Revenues Lease revenue $ 635.7 $ 142.8 $ 3.2 $ 22.3 $ — $ 804.0 Marine operating revenue — — 145.2 43.6 — 188.8 Other revenue 46.4 6.7 — 3.7 — 56.8 Total Revenues 682.1 149.5 148.4 69.6 — 1,049.6 Expenses Maintenance expense 192.2 34.1 16.4 — — 242.7 Marine operating expense — — 97.9 36.5 — 134.4 Depreciation expense 140.3 35.4 8.9 17.1 — 201.7 Operating lease expense 78.2 — 3.5 — (0.1 ) 81.6 Other operating expense 16.1 3.6 — 1.6 — 21.3 Total Expenses 426.8 73.1 126.7 55.2 (0.1 ) 681.7 Other Income (Expense) Net gain (loss) on asset dispositions 53.1 5.8 (0.4 ) 4.1 — 62.6 Interest expense, net (74.0 ) (18.4 ) (4.2 ) (18.7 ) (4.3 ) (119.6 ) Other (expense) income (4.7 ) (3.8 ) — (1.1 ) (1.8 ) (11.4 ) Share of affiliates’ earnings (pretax) 7.6 (0.2 ) — 41.4 — 48.8 Segment Profit (Loss) $ 237.3 $ 59.8 $ 17.1 $ 40.1 $ (6.0 ) $ 348.3 Selling, common and administrative expense 133.4 Income taxes (includes $14.2 related to affiliates’ earnings) 68.4 Net Income $ 146.5
Selected Data:Investment Volume $ 660.7 $ 127.2 $ 16.9 $ 17.0 $ 4.8 $ 826.6 Net Gain on Asset Dispositions
Asset Remarketing Income:Disposition gains on owned assets $ 40.5 $ 0.6 $ — $ 0.5 $ — $ 41.6 Residual sharing income 4.5 — — 3.5 — 8.0 Non-remarketing temperament gains (1) 8.1 5.3 — — — 13.4 Asset impairment — (0.1 ) (0.4 ) 0.1 — (0.4 ) Total Net Gain on Asset Dispositions $ 53.1 $ 5.8 $ (0.4 ) $ 4.1 $ — $ 62.6
(1) Includes scrapping gains.GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION (UNAUDITED) (In millions, except per participate data)
Impact of Other Items on Net Income:Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended September 30 September 30 2015 2014 2015 2014
Other ItemsDisposition of marine investments (26.6 ) — (26.6 ) — Total repercussion on Net Income $ (26.6 ) $ — $ (26.6 ) $ —
Impact of Other Items on Diluted Earnings per Share:Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended September 30 September 30 2015 2014 2015 2014
Other ItemsDisposition of marine investments (0.61 ) — (0.61 ) — Total repercussion on Diluted Earnings per Share $ (0.61 ) $ — $ (0.61 ) $ —
We highlight these items to allow for a more meaningful comparison of financial performance between years and to provide transparency into the operating results of their business.GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION (UNAUDITED) (In millions, except leverage) (Continued) 9/30/2014 12/31/2014 3/31/2015 6/30/2015 9/30/2015
Assets by Segment (includes off-balance-sheet assets)Rail North America $ 4,902.2 $ 4,939.9 $ 5,057.6 $ 5,081.2 $ 5,076.7 Rail International 1,220.1 1,193.0 1,029.1 1,075.2 1,101.2 ASC 304.2 298.3 283.8 317.0 304.9 Portfolio Management 814.2 811.4 792.1 793.4 730.7 Other 118.1 88.3 103.4 87.8 98.6 Total Assets, excluding cash $ 7,358.8 $ 7,330.9 $ 7,266.0 $ 7,354.6 $ 7,312.1
Capital StructureCommercial paper and bank credit facilities, net of unrestricted cash $ (0.2 ) $ (137.8 ) $ (348.6 ) $ (54.8 ) $ (97.9 ) On-balance-sheet recourse debt 4,081.8 4,179.9 4,443.8 4,208.1 4,271.2 On-balance-sheet nonrecourse debt 18.1 15.9 13.7 11.5 9.2 Off-balance-sheet recourse debt 562.9 566.7 527.4 519.1 493.5 Off-balance-sheet nonrecourse debt 52.9 51.1 49.2 47.4 45.4 Capital lease obligations 6.3 6.3 5.0 5.0 3.6 Total Borrowings, net of unrestricted cash $ 4,721.8 $ 4,682.1 $ 4,690.5 $ 4,736.3 $ 4,725.0 Total Recourse Debt (1) $ 4,650.8 $ 4,615.1 $ 4,627.6 $ 4,677.4 $ 4,670.4 Shareholders’ Equity $ 1,331.2 $ 1,314.0 $ 1,282.5 $ 1,285.4 $ 1,269.0 Recourse Leverage (2) 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7
_________(1) Includes on- and off-balance-sheet recourse debt; capital lease obligations; commercial paper and bank credit facilities, net of unrestricted cash. (2) Calculated as total recourse debt / shareholder's equity.
Reconciliation of Total Assets to Total Assets (Including Off-Balance-Sheet Assets), Excluding Cash:Total Assets $ 6,816.3 $ 6,937.5 $ 7,056.4 $ 6,860.0 $ 6,904.7 Less: cash (73.3 ) (224.4 ) (367.0 ) (71.9 ) (131.5 ) Add off-balance-sheet assets: Rail North America 602.9 606.1 566.1 557.2 530.9 ASC 12.9 11.7 10.5 9.3 8.0 Total Assets, excluding cash $ 7,358.8 $ 7,330.9 $ 7,266.0 $ 7,354.6 $ 7,312.1 GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION (UNAUDITED) (Continued) 9/30/2014 12/31/2014 3/31/2015 6/30/2015 9/30/2015
Rail North America StatisticsLease charge Index (LPI) (1) Average renewal lease rate change 46.9 % 39.2 % 43.2 % 36.3 % 25.6 % Average renewal term (months) 68 67 59 54 60 Fleet Rollforward (2) Beginning balance 106,894 107,387 107,343 106,949 106,984 Cars added 958 835 1,013 823 620 Cars scrapped (440 ) (202 ) (261 ) (347 ) (396 ) Cars sold (25 ) (677 ) (1,146 ) (441 ) (816 ) Ending balance 107,387 107,343 106,949 106,984 106,392 Utilization 98.8 % 99.2 % 99.3 % 99.3 % 99.2 % Average energetic railcars 105,755 106,569 106,541 106,211 105,896 Boxcar Fleet Ending balance 19,146 19,021 18,912 18,651 18,567 Utilization 91.3 % 92.7 % 92.8 % 97.3 % 96.6 %
Rail Europe StatisticsFleet Rollforward Beginning balance 21,684 21,960 22,451 22,497 22,483 Cars added 481 657 249 301 412 Cars scrapped/sold (205 ) (166 ) (203 ) (315 ) (150 ) Ending balance 21,960 22,451 22,497 22,483 22,745 Utilization 95.1 % 95.9 % 95.9 % 95.5 % 95.7 % Average energetic railcars 20,833 21,111 21,479 21,427 21,630
Rail North America Industry StatisticsManufacturing Capacity Utilization Index (3) 79.5 % 79.5 % 79.0 % 77.5 % 77.5 % Year-over-year Change in U.S. Carloadings (excl. intermodal) (4) 3.6 % 3.9 % 0.3 % (3.8 )% (4.4 )% Year-over-year Change in U.S. Carloadings (chemical) (4) 1.5 % 1.2 % 1.8 % 0.4 % 0.5 % Year-over-year Change in U.S. Carloadings (petroleum) (4) 12.8 % 12.7 % 0.4 % (1.1 )% (5.9 )% Production Backlog at Railcar Manufacturers (5) 124,437 142,837 138,856 135,805 122,591
American Steamship Company StatisticsTotal Net Tons Carried (millions) 11.3 10.9 0.8 8.4 10.3
_________(1) GATX's Lease charge Index ("LPI") is an internally-generated traffic indicator that measures lease rate pricing on renewals within their North American railcar fleet, excluding the boxcar fleet. The index is calculated using the weighted impartial lease rate for a group of railcar types that GATX believes best represents its overall North American fleet, excluding boxcars. The impartial renewal lease rate change is reported as the percentage change between the impartial renewal lease rate and the impartial expiring lease rate, weighted by fleet composition. The impartial renewal lease term is reported in months and reflects the impartial renewal lease term of railcar types in the LPI, weighted by fleet composition. (2) Excludes boxcar fleet. (3) As reported and revised by the Federal Reserve. (4) As reported by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). (5) As reported by the Railway Supply Institute (RSI).
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